Dense

Derbyshire, who should be able to figure this out with his background in math, is struggling with a logic puzzle.
The central and most glaring contradiction is the implied threat to walk away... Yoked to the ringing declaration that, of course, we can't walk away. We seem to be saying to the Maliki govt.: "Hey, you guys better step up to your responsibilites, or else we're outa here." This, a few sentences after saying that we can't leave the place without a victory. So-o-o-o:

—-We can't leave Iraq without a victory.

—-Unless Maliki & Co. get their act together, we can't achieve victory.

—-If Maliki & Co. don't get their act together, we'll leave.

It's been a while since I studied classical logic, but it seems to me that this syllogism leaks like a sieve.

The rust is showing. "We can't leave Iraq without a victory." This is my view, and apparently the view of the Bush administration. So far, so good. "Unless Maliki & Co. get their act together, we can't achieve victory." That is an assertion by the Bush administration. It strikes me as true. "If Maliki & Co. don't get their act together, we'll leave." That also sounds correct in my view.

What Derbyshire is missing is a pretty obvious point. If "Maliki & Co. don't get their act together," then this latest effort by the Bush administration will fail (as asserted in the second point). The Bush administration will end, and will under such a scenario almost certainly be replaced by an administration that does not believe in the first point. People who, like me, believe we should try everything we can to win before deciding we have lost, will start to think that there is nothing we can do to win; there is some evidence that this is already happening.

In other words, the three points that Derbyshire believes are logically inconsistent are only so because they leave out an obvious point or two. Let me rectify this.

--- The Bush administration believes we can't leave without a victory.

--- Unless Maliki & Co. get their act together, we can't achieve victory.

--- If Maliki & Co. don't get their act together, the Bush administration will not be followed by one that shares the belief that we can't leave without a victory.

--- Therefore, if Maliki & Co. don't get their act together, we'll leave.